On-Chain Data. Settlement you can read for yourself.
On-chain data is everything a public blockchain records: transfers, wallet balances, contract interactions and the addresses involved. Unlike exchange data it is not reported by anyone; it is the settlement layer itself.
That makes it uniquely verifiable and uniquely easy to misread, because a transaction shows what moved without ever telling you why.
Verifiable, but not self-explaining
You can prove that a wallet moved ten thousand coins. You cannot prove it was a sale rather than a custody rotation, an internal transfer, a loan collateralisation or an exchange reshuffling its own wallets. On-chain analysis is largely the work of labelling addresses well enough to make that distinction, and the labels are inferred, not given.
On-Chain Data in a strategy
Transfers from long-dormant wallets are worth attention as a change in behaviour.
Coins moving to or from exchange wallets are the closest on-chain proxy for intent to trade.
Active addresses and transaction counts describe whether a chain is actually being used.
The data exists whether or not an exchange chooses to publish anything.
Flag dormant supply waking up
Not an entry signal. A risk rule: when very old coins move to an exchange, reduce exposure until the market has absorbed it.
- IFA wallet holding more than 1,000 BTC moves any amount
- ANDThat wallet has been inactive for more than 2 years
- ANDThe destination is an address labelled as an exchange deposit wallet
- ANDThe amount transferred is more than 0.05% of that exchange's known reserves
This is written as a risk adjustment rather than a trade because the underlying inference is weak. A dormant wallet moving to an exchange is consistent with an intent to sell, and equally consistent with a custodian rotating storage or an OTC settlement that never touches the order book. The rule is worth having because the downside case is real and cheap to hedge against; treating it as a short signal would be trading somebody's address label.
The raw ledger, straight from a node you run or a public endpoint. Complete and unlabelled.
Dune, Glassnode and Nansen add the address labelling and aggregation that make raw transactions interpretable.
Most large chains expose their own data services, which is usually the quickest route to balances and transfer history.
Address labels are educated guesses
Nearly every on-chain metric depends on knowing whose wallet is whose, and that mapping is inferred by analytics providers rather than published by the owners. Labels are frequently wrong or stale, so two providers can report different numbers for the same metric on the same day.
Turn On-Chain Data into a rule that fires.
Your keys, your account, your rules. We only send the orders.
- Large holder movement
- Exchange transfers
- Network usage